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Review 11Dec - 15Dec23 - Risk on with stocks, USTs, commodities up and USD lower

Key events of last week:

  • Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index surprised to the upside in December, registering 12.8 compared to November's 9.8. (read more here)

  • US consumer prices edged up in Nov: Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, headline CPI 0.1%. Annual rates stand at 4.0% (core) & 3.1% (headline). (read more here)

  • Business sentiment in the Bank of Japan's December Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises (Tankan) shows continued improvement for large enterprises. The latest figures indicate +12 for large manufacturing firms and +30 for large non-manufacturing companies, rising from 9 and 27, respectively, in the September survey. (read more here)

  • The Fed left the policy rate unchanged, aligning with expectations, but delivered what many perceive as a surprisingly dovish stance. The December Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now forecasts a median of three 25 basis point cuts in 2024, compared to just one cut in the September SEP. (read more here)

  • US retail sales outperformed in November, rising 0.3% against an expected -0.1% drop. Excluding gasoline, the increase was 0.6%. (read more here)

  • China's industrial production for November exceeded expectations, posting a 6.6% year-over-year (yoy) increase compared to the anticipated 5.6%. However, retail sales and fixed asset investment were underwhelming, recording gains of only 10.1% and 2.9% yoy, respectively. (read more here)

  • S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted for the seventh consecutive month in December, falling to 47. This defied expectations of a slight increase to 48 from November's 47.8.(read more here)

  • The composite PMI for the US increased to 51 in December, up from 50.7 in November. This uptick was primarily driven by a significant rise in the services PMI, which climbed to 51.3 from 50.8. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI further declined, dropping below 50 to 48.2. (read more here)


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